All Sports Blog

Something a Down supporter said after the Ulster semi-final on Sunday got me thinking. He said something along the lines of: 'we had to play with a blanket defense because we knew Donegal would so we had no choice'. So is it a reasonable question to ask, is the blanket defense the optimum strategy in Gaelic football?

For those who are unfamiliar with the idea of Game Theory and more specifically, the 'Prisoner's Dilemma', I'll try to explain. The easiest way is to draw a comparison with the TV game-show 'Golden Balls' which used the same idea. There is a sum of money and two people have a decision to make which they must make of their own accord and then inform each other of their decision simultaneously. The choice is to 'split' or to 'steal'. If they both split, they half the money. If one person 'steals' and the other splits, the person who steals wins all the money. However, if they both steal, neither win anything.

So you might say, why don't they both split and everyone goes home happy? Well, because that is never the optimum strategy. Stealing is. Because if you split and they split you only get half and if they steal you get nothing. Whereas if you steal and they split you win it all but if they split you win nothing. Basically, regardless of what you do, if the other person steals you are getting nothing so you might as well steal yourself for a chance to win it all instead of half. The underlying problem is that the optimal strategy for both parties is actually the worst outcome for everyone.

So finally I will involve football in this. The 'traditional' system is like the split position. If both teams adopt it, it's good football, it's enjoyable for the players and easy on the eye for the neutrals. The blanket defense mimics the steal position. If the other team doesn't employ it then its a counter-attacking dream. Soak up the pressure and then break at speed into the space, outnumbering the opposition in both defense and attack. However if both teams steal (blanket defense) it becomes a contest like Donegal vs Down on Sunday. A battle of trench warfare for both teams and not much fun for the neutral. But if the strategy works like a charm against the 'traditional' system and breaks even against a similar system, then it is obviously the optimum strategy. Therefore, both teams should play it, but if they do, the viewers will suffer.

I believe the key reason why this optimum strategy has become possible is due to the advances made by modern-day sports science, nutrition and dedication leading to the fittest players we have ever seen. Inter-county players are full-blown athletes in the modern game. And to explain why this has made the difference I will draw a comparison to another sport - basketball.

In a basketball team there are 5 players on a much smaller playing area. Imagine if basketball players played a 2-1-2 formation where 2 people stay up near the opposing basket, 1 in the middle and 2 play defense. Something along the same lines as the traditional formation in football. But why would you have players standing up front doing nothing when you are defending? They are fit enough to come back to defend and run forward to attack. If there ever was a time when players stayed in their positions in basketball, it wont happen again because its not optimal.

Decades ago when players weren't fit enough to run up and down the pitch for 70 minutes it was an impossible game plan. Now, is it possible that we have seen the development of an optimum strategy based on defending zonally as a team and attacking as a team much like in basketball.

The problem for the game as a whole is that this optimum strategy comes at a cost - the spectator. It seems that majority of people want to see more points, more goals and more free-flowing football instead of the intense defensive battles that see players constantly turnover possession and forced to shoot under immense pressure, as evident in Sunday's game.

Is Gaelic football facing a battle with Game Theory?

Game Theory and Gaelic Football

Down 1-16 1-10 Kerry
What a performance from Down! They really were excellent throughout and Kerry had no answer to them. They had 8 different scorers compared to 3 for Kerry, the last being David Moran from the penalty spot (a sympathy penalty if ever there was one!) They started quickly but then Kerry started to come back into it and you wondered if it would be a repeat of the Tyrone game earlier in the year. But, to their credit, they kicked on again towards the end of the 1st half. They never really looked like they were going to relinquish that lead and any hopes of a Kerry comeback were ended with the Walsh sending off.

Colm Cooper was excellent for Kerry but he was more or less on his own, although Donaghy tried in vain but couldn't find a way past Michael McVeigh who pulled off a couple of super saves. For Down, its harsh to pick out names because it was a wonderful team effort but there were a few stand-out performances. Mark Poland brought the fight to Kerry with the early goal and a couple of excellent points. Benny Coulter tormented the Kerry defence all afternoon and hit some wonderful scores from all angles. He is definately up there with players who are deserving of an All-Ireland medal. Marty Clarke displayed all the attributes of a top-class playmaker; composure, decision-making, vision and accurate passing. He was always available for the pass and he has great appreciation of space. He really was outstanding. Down cleaned up in midfield and the forwards all worked hard when they didn't have the ball, leading to a few crucial turnovers which ended up as scores.

I hope they keep playing with such freedom because they are contenders for the title.

Dublin 1-15 0-13 Tyrone
This was a very strange game but an excellent one to analyse. Dublin brought what we all knew they would; hard-work, an honesty of effort and a few excellent players led by the best player in Ireland at the minute, Bernard Brogan. They tackled hard and in numbers and they always pressurised the man in possession. In a way they out-Tyroned Tyrone because they played one of the most defensive formations I have ever seen. For a lot of the game they played with 2 sweepers in front of the full-back line and gobbled up a lot of ball around the half-back area.

But this is where it gets strange. Tyrone were very poor. As poor as I have seen them in a long, long time. So many usually reliable players had bad games. Dooher and Cavanagh had days to forget, McGuigan was not as influential as usual and in general, the team looked lethargic. The support play was non-existant! Usually, in this Tyrone team there are players running on the shoulders of others but it never happened. I was amazed at how wrong they got it tactically. I'm always quick to give Mickey Harte praise but I feel he got it very wrong and he was too slow to make changes. There are many points I need to make here:

1. Many are saying that they should have abandoned the short kickouts because they allowed the Dublin players to funnel back. I don't agree with this. Tyrone have many good footballers at the back and what is the point of hitting into a midfield where there is every chance of losing it when there are men free at the back? HOWEVER, given this ploy I just can't see why Kevin Hughes was playing. Tyrone needed runners from deep to break Dublin down. Hughes is there to win ball in midfield but he was wasted with the short kickouts. Too many times Tyrone tried to kick-pass their way through the Dublin midfield but there were too many bodies in the way. I don't understand why a player like Sean Cavanagh wasn't used instead of Hughes in midfield, a player who can run at defences and break tackles. His brother Colm worked hard and was honest but he is a bit of a headless chicken at times. His passing and timing of the pass is often poor. Tyrone needed ball-players in midfield who were capable of running at Dublin and they didn't have that.

2. Some of the changes made by Harte were puzzling. He brought on O'Neill for Davy Harte at half-time when Tyrone were doing well. As I mentioned earlier, Tyrone needed runners from deep because there was no space in the forward line. I don't know if Harte was injured or not but surely Sean O'Neill was exactly the type of player who was needed. After this switch it was crazy how long Harte waited before making more changes. It was the 62nd minute before more changes were made when Peter Harte came on for Penrose. Penrose, while he worked hard, was poor enough in possession and gave the ball away too much. I felt Dooher should have been subbed maybe even at half-time because he just wasn't up to the pace. He is usually taken off early these days so why was he left on when he was having such a poor game? Enda McGinley was brought on in the 66th minute! Far too late to make an impression.

3. Colly McCullagh. I mentioned in my preview of this game how McCullagh controlled the game 2 years ago against Dublin and I felt this game was crying out for him. With so many players having off games, it was sad to see him being overlooked on the bench. He is a very intelligent and accurate footballer with a great appreciation for space. Its such a pity because I fear we will not see him again. He quit after last year because he felt he wasn't getting a fair chance and had to be coaxed back but surely this will be the end now. Just watch that game 2 years ago to see what he brought to that game, he was magnificent.

Even with all the flaws, Tyrone could still have won that game but kicked so many wides. A lot of these wides were down to a lack of composure and poor decisions, which is very rare to see from Tyrone. They normally don't shoot until they work the ball into good positions but some of the decisions were strange. Credit to Dublin for putting them under pressure but it is not what you expect from Tyrone. Owen Mulligan had a very good game but there weren't many other great performances on the Tyrone team. For Dublin, Bernard Brogan was tremendous, while Bryan Cullen and Rory O'Carroll were others who I thought had very good games.

Cork 1-16 0-10 Roscommon
The scoreline flattered Cork in the end because it wasn't a great performance but you always felt they had too much for Roscommon. In the end, their fitness told and the strength of their bench was too much for a brave Roscommon who played some decent football at the end of the first half but never really threatened the upset. It was by no means convincing from Cork though but they are through and that is the main thing. Maybe now, with both Kerry and Tyrone out, they will feel this is their big chance and will start to produce the football we know they are capable of. Roscommon will be happy with their year's work content with the fact they are the reigning provincial champions.

Kildare 2-17 1-12 Meath
Kildare continue to impress me and I would have to install them as favourites for the title this year. Again, they started very slow but were back in the game by half time and they produced a near perfect second half performance to simply blow Meath away. I never really thought Meath would be good enough and it proved to be the case when Kildare really turned it on. Their movement and running off the ball is incredible and really shows how fit they are. Defenders of the other team find it hard to tackle the man because they are usually trying to block or intercept a pass to another player, but Kildare have so many options on the ball that defenders often find themselves in no man's land! They made the game look easy and Meath just couldn't cope with their intensity and mental strength. Like I said before, they just keep coming wave after wave and there is no let-up.

Jonny Doyle and Eoin O'Flaherty were both brilliant and James Kavanagh set up a lot of scores and showed great skill and composure to score his goal. I thought losing Dermot Early barely two minutes in would be a massive blow but they regrouped and actually dominated the midfield area in his absence. I still feel it would be a big blow were he to miss the semi-final as you could see at the final whistle how much of an inspiration he is in the dressing-room. McGeeney has built a team that threatened to do last year what they are doing this year and its no fluke that they are here and credit to him for that.

Review of GAA Football All-Ireland SFC Quarter-Finals

Kerry v Down, Croke Park, 2.00pm
Down currently hold a 100% record in meetings with Kerry, coming into this game 4/4, the most recent being in 1991. Since then, the two counties have gone in separate directions in terms of success. Down won the All-Ireland in '91 and '94 but since then the closest they came to silverwhere was an Ulster final draw with Tyrone in 2003 and a drubbing in the replay. Kerry, on the other hand, have appeared in the last 6 All-Ireland finals, emerging as victors in 4 of them.

Could it be the best time to face Kerry? It is likely to be. This game they are missing Paul Galvin and Tomas O'Se, both of whom are suspended. Aidan O'Mahony returns to fill in the void left by O'Se at right-half-back. A timely return but will he be up to championship pace? Indeed, will the whole team suffer from the long lay-off from the Munster final? Down have had much more game time and their confidence will be sky high after last week's demolition of Sligo. They are also boosted by the availability of Damien Rafferty and star-man Benny Coulter, who have shaken off injuries sustained in that game.

I was critical before of Dan Gordon playing full-back and I would still worry about him facing nippy opponents but he should be well suited to mark Kieran Donaghy. I feel that Down will have the upper-hand in midfield where Caolan King and Ambrose Rodgers have been superb so far this year and once again the amount of ball that Marty Clarke gets on will be pivotal to Down's chances.

Down lack the big-game experience that Kerry have but I think they will surprise a lot of people tomorrow and I'm backing them to pull off a huge upset.

Verdict: Down

Tyrone v Dublin, Croke Park, 4.00pm
Are Dublin relishing the chance to get revenge against Tyrone or are they fearful that they are not good enough to beat them? I would be more prone to think it is the latter. While Dublin have been solid enough in recent times, I would question their mental fragility when things aren't going their way. In the games against Meath, Wexford and Tipperary, they suffered lapses in concentration and focus. To stand any chance tomorrow they will need to play for the full 70 minutes. They are also all too prone to complete collapses as we have seen numerous times in recent years and Tyrone will have them beyond arms-length in record time if they switch off.

For Tyrone, Brian McGuigan replaces his brother in attack and this doesn't really weaken them. In fact, I think it will be of benefit to have another player who is controlled in posession. In the game 2 years ago, Colm McCullagh controlled the game from deep and that might just be McGuigan's role this game.

The key to this game will be Tyrone's intelligence of movement and their ability to work the ball into great shooting positions. I don't think the Dublin defense will be able to cope with this and I dont think their attack is varied enough to break Tyrone down.

Verdict: Tyrone

Roscommon v Cork, Croke Park, 2.00pm
Roscommon are in bonus territory and will be out to enjoy this occasion and try to play their best football. In normal circumstances it would be a game where you would worry about Cork underestimating a much-less fancied opposition but I don't think this will be the case. After last weeks below par performance against Limerick, Cork will be on their guard this time and I think we will see a much improved performance.

Man for man, there is quite a sizeable gulf in class between the two teams and I expect Cork to have too much power in the half-back and midfield areas of the pitch. They have such a strong bench and with places possibly up for grabs in many areas, the players will be looking to cement their places for the latter stages of the competition.


Verdict: Cork

Meath v Kildare, Croke Park, 4.00pm
Meath haven't had a game since their narrow win against Louth and they probably could have benefitted from offering them a replay in that sense! They have a few big-game players in the team and they are one of the teams who are quite vulnerable if any of them have an off-day. They disposed of Dublin well but were never really tested in that game when they got the easy goals. More worringly, they were very poor against Louth in the second half.

Kildare for me have been the most impressive team in the championship this year. They do shoot from some low-percentage angles and distances but they create so many chances that it works out in the end. Mentally, they look very strong and not surprisingly, given they are under the tutelage of Kieran McGeeney, they are all fighting fit. In the games against Derry and Monaghan they just kept coming wave after wave of attack and both teams eventually succumbed to the pressure. Dermot Early is the leader and inspiration in midfield and it seems that in Emmet Bolton, there is a player who McGeeney is moulding himself in to be the heartbeat of the team from centre-half-back.

Meath have a chance if they score a couple of goals but in my mind the most probable outcomes are either a narrow or a wide Kildare winning margin.

Verdict: Kildare

GAA SFC Quarter-Final Previews

Well there was always going to be some great draws thrown up and I cannot wait until next weekend, it is going to be epic.

Meath v Kildare
This promises to be a very close, tense battle and Meath will be looking to improve a lot on their final performance against Louth. Kildare have been building very nicely and will be quietly confident they can do the business.

Kerry v Down
If Down produce an attacking display like yesterday then this game could be a thriller. Kerry are Kerry and will be well fancied for this game but Down will chomping at the bit to get at them, its been a long time since they have been on the big stage and they will respect Kerry but not fear them. This could well be the game of the round.

Tyrone v Dublin
They meet again! Memories of that masterful Tyrone performance in the rain in 2008 will be fresh among a lot of both sets of players and Dublin will have revenge on their minds. If they keep improving they could cause Tyrone some problems. The atmosphere will be electric and I expect a full house at Croke Park in what is no doubt the standout fixture in the quarter finals.

Roscommon v Cork
No disrespect to Roscommon but they were probably the team that all the qualifiers were hoping to draw. Cork will be delighted that they have drawn the Rossies and have a chance to improve and build on their dire performance last night. Roscommon wont be there just to make up the numbers but it will be a very difficult task for them

Predictions:
Later in the week I will post my predictions when I have more information on team news.

An interesting thing to note is that the semi-final draw is automatic and it will be:
Meath/Kildare v Kerry/Down
Tyrone/Dublin v Cork/Roscommon

Everyone was wondering which side of the draw Cork would be thrown into and it is the Tyrone side. It looks as though if Tyrone are going to win the Sam Maguire this year they are going to have to do it the hard way!

Reaction to GAA Football Quarter-Final Draw

So the 4 provincial final losers have all made their exits from the All-Ireland series. It will probably act as a watershed in the structure of the championship in future years as there seems to be a lot of talk that it is unfair for the beaten finalists to have to pick themselves up so quickly for a tough knockout match. Personally, I wouldn't be so sympathetic. I certainly think that this year it was more a case of the best teams coming through. Louth and Sligo both surprised more fancied teams on the way to their provincial finals but were knocked out by teams in Down and Dublin who have improved game by game. Kildare were also very poor against Louth but have really come on since. It certainly makes for a mouthwatering line-up for the quarter finals no matter what pairings are thrown up.

Kildare 1-15  1-11 Monaghan
The scoreline doesn't really do this game justice as it was all but over after 45 minutes. Monaghan started brightly enough and tagged on a few scores but Kildare are perenial slow starters and clawed their way back into the game as the half wore on just as they did against Derry a week earlier. The thing about Kildare is that they make so many scoring opportunities that if they find a bit of a purple patch accuracy wise, their opponents can find themselves a handful of points in such a short period. Psychologically it must be hard to take. Once Kildare put a bit of daylight between themselves and Monaghan, the game was over. Monaghan didn't have any fight left and the late rally was more due to Kildare easing off and replacing some of their key men. James Kavanagh was brilliant especially in the 2nd half and his pass for the goal was inch perfect.

Kildare are a force to be reckoned with and whoever they face in the quarters will know they were in a game. They certainly gave Tyrone all they could handle last year and I expect more of the same next week.

Dublin 2-14 0-13 Louth
Unfortunately I was unable to get sorted with an Irish proxy to catch this game on TV3 online so I had to make do with the updates from RTE.ie but its clear that Dublin came flying out of the blocks and left Louth for dead early on. Fragile enough from their loss to Meath, it was always going to be difficult to try to come back against Dublin in their back yard. However, all credit to Louth in the second half they battled away and can walk away from this years championship with their heads held high.

Cork 0-16 1-11 Limerick aet
Well what can you say about this game? It wasnt great, far from it. Limerick were unlucky early on, denied a stonewall penalty and then denied by the crossbar but after an enjoyable opening 10 minutes, it really was dreadful stuff! What happened in the last 2 minutes of normal time is hard to explain. A very daft shoulder in the back by Alan O'Connor and then a woeful kickout from Quirke gifted a draw for Limerick. I was cursing my luck that I would have to sit through another 20 minutes to be honest. Unfortunately it got even worse in extra time and Cork just about crawled over the line in the end.

If Cork play like this next week they wont beat any of the provincial winners so they have a lot of work to do.

Down 3-20 0-10 Sligo
Just when I had given up on Down showing what they can really do, they go and do it. They are one of the very few counties who are capable of racking up such a score and this result will set off alarm bells around the country. On their day, they are capable of beating anyone. As for Sligo; well it was never going to be easy to pick themselves up after the shock defeat last week and they were never really at the races.

Review of GAA Football Qualifiers

It really is crunch time for the dark horses of the GAA football and hurling championships this weekend. There promises to be some intriguing battles and the outcomes also depend on the mental state of the teams who teams who were defeated in their provincial championships. I give my predictions below:

Monaghan v Kildare, 3pm. Live on RTE
Monaghan will be devastated with their performance against Tyrone last weekend. After some early jostling they were overwhelmed by the Red Hands despite being much fancied to end the long wait for another Ulster title. Some of the big names didn't perform to their ability and it will all depend on how they react to such a demoralising defeat. There is no doubt they are a better team than they showed and in McEnaney they have one of the greatest motivators in the game so I expect them to be well up for the challenge.

And a challenge it will be. I was hugely impressed by Kildare in their showing against Derry last week. They had such a terrible start, falling behing 1-2 0-0 after 10 minutes but they kept their nerve and as the half wore on they clawed their way back into the game. Even at half-time things weren't looking great, having only a 1 point lead and facing a stiff breeze in the 2nd half. But they played some lovely football in the 2nd half and in the end they eased to a comfortable victory. Granted, Derry have been a bit of a shambles this year but some of the passages from Kildare were of the highest quality. And in Jonny Doyle they have a player who showed tremendous workrate and a williness to help out his defense as well as kicking some fine scores.

This will be a tight game and Kildare are slight favourites. I would slightly favour a full-strength Monaghan but it will be a tough task without JP Mone, the inspirational Vinnie Corey and Duffy (if he goes back into goal),

Verdict: Kildare

Louth v Dublin,  5pm, TV3
Im not going to talk again about what happened to Louth for we have heard enough, but needless to say they were unlucky against Meath. They showed a lot of fight in that game and impressed especially in the 2nd half, where Meath really struggled to get anything going. They have quite a few players on fine form and it just depends on where their heads are at after the debacle a fortnight ago. They have had that extra week to recover and hopefully we will see the best of them tomorrow.

The Dublin bandwagon is back on the go and one thing about Dublin is that when they start to pick up momentum, they are very hard to stop. I wasn't overly impressed with them last week from an attacking sense. In fact, I was more disappointed with Armagh than anything else. However, to their credit, they defended with intensity and had a good structure to their game in their own half. Bernard Brogan was awesome last week, but their reliance on him is very worrying. They are going to struggle in this game if they dont have at least another 3 or 4 scorers because Louth will do all they can to stop him.


I dont think either of these teams are going to go much further in the competition, but reading about how Louth manager Peter Fitzpatrick wakes up every morning "haunted" by that refereeing decision makes me think that Louth aren't recovered quite yet.


Verdict: Dublin


Limerick v Cork, 7pm RTE
I was somewhat shocked by the huge praise being thrown Limerick's way by some of the experts on the Sunday Game last Sunday night. A few of them thought that Limerick were well fit for any of the other qualifiers and were unlucky to draw Cork. Im not sure why exactly they think this because Limerick have a terrible record in the qualifiers. Sure, they have a relatively decent record against Cork and Kerry, always making it difficult, but never quite cutting the mustard.

Cork are heavyweights in this competition, make no mistake about it. They got past Wexford with minimal fuss in horrendous conditions and are pacing themselves nicely. I have a feeling they might just start to rev the engines tomorrow and pull away in the 2nd half.

Verdict: Cork


Sligo v Down, 7pm 
What must Sligo be feeling? They did all the hard work, beating Connaught juggernauts Galway and Mayo and forgot to finish the job last weekend, letting Roscommon steal in. It was an exciting enough game although at times the quality was lacking. Sligo made far too many errors and really, only for some magnificent Costello long range points, never really got to grips with the task. More worrying was that, somehow managing to draw level with 10 minutes left, they were unable to push on and close the game out.

Are Down ever going to show their potential? At times they can look brilliant going forward and have shown glimpses this year but nowhere near enough. The idea of Dan Gordon as a full back just did not work and I would be very worried as a Down fan if he starts in there again. Offaly could have been out of sight after 10 minutes last week!

This is another tough one to call. I always feel with Sligo that if you keep O'Hara quiet then your task is much easier. If Down can do that and give a steady supply of ball to Marty Clarke, who is showing signs of settling back into his game, then I think Down will have that bit too much firepower.


Verdict: Down

Big Weekend of GAA