Something a Down supporter said after the Ulster semi-final on Sunday got me thinking. He said
something along the lines of: 'we had to play with a blanket defense because
we knew Donegal would so we had no choice'. So is it a reasonable
question to ask, is the blanket defense the optimum strategy in Gaelic
football?
For those who are unfamiliar with the idea of Game
Theory and more specifically, the 'Prisoner's Dilemma', I'll try to explain. The easiest way is to draw a comparison
with the TV game-show 'Golden Balls' which used the same idea. There is a
sum of money and two people have a decision to make which they must make of their own accord and then inform each other of their decision simultaneously. The choice is to
'split' or to 'steal'. If they both split, they half the money. If one
person 'steals' and the other splits, the person who steals wins all the
money. However, if they both steal, neither win anything.
So you
might say, why don't they both split and everyone goes home happy? Well,
because that is never the optimum strategy. Stealing is. Because if you
split and they split you only get half and if they steal you get
nothing. Whereas if you steal and they split you win it all but if they
split you win nothing. Basically, regardless of what you do, if the
other person steals you are getting nothing so you might as well steal
yourself for a chance to win it all instead of half. The underlying problem is that the optimal strategy for both
parties is actually the worst outcome for everyone.
So finally I
will involve football in this. The 'traditional' system is like the
split position. If both teams adopt it, it's good football, it's enjoyable
for the players and easy on the eye for the neutrals. The blanket
defense mimics the steal position. If the other team doesn't employ it
then its a counter-attacking dream. Soak up the pressure and then break
at speed into the space, outnumbering the opposition in both defense and attack. However if both teams steal (blanket defense)
it becomes a contest like Donegal vs Down on Sunday. A battle of trench warfare for both
teams and not much fun for the neutral. But if the strategy works like a charm against
the 'traditional' system and breaks even against a similar system, then it
is obviously the optimum strategy. Therefore, both teams should play it,
but if they do, the viewers will suffer.
I believe the key
reason why this optimum strategy has become possible is due to the advances made by modern-day sports science, nutrition and dedication leading to the fittest
players we have ever seen. Inter-county players are full-blown athletes
in the modern game. And to explain why this has made the difference I
will draw a comparison to another sport - basketball.
In a
basketball team there are 5 players on a much smaller playing area.
Imagine if basketball players played a 2-1-2 formation where 2 people
stay up near the opposing basket, 1 in the middle and 2 play defense.
Something along the same lines as the traditional formation in football.
But why would you have players standing up front doing nothing when you
are defending? They are fit enough to come back to defend and run
forward to attack. If there ever was a time when players stayed in their
positions in basketball, it wont happen again because its not optimal.
Decades
ago when players weren't fit enough to run up and down the pitch for 70
minutes it was an impossible game plan. Now, is it possible that we have seen the development of an optimum
strategy based on defending zonally as a team and attacking as a team much like
in basketball.
The problem for the game as a whole is that this
optimum strategy comes at a cost - the spectator. It seems that majority of people want to see more points, more goals and more free-flowing football instead of the intense defensive battles that see players constantly turnover possession and forced to shoot under immense pressure, as evident in Sunday's game.
Is Gaelic football facing a battle
with Game Theory?
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