All Sports Blog

Something a Down supporter said after the Ulster semi-final on Sunday got me thinking. He said something along the lines of: 'we had to play with a blanket defense because we knew Donegal would so we had no choice'. So is it a reasonable question to ask, is the blanket defense the optimum strategy in Gaelic football?

For those who are unfamiliar with the idea of Game Theory and more specifically, the 'Prisoner's Dilemma', I'll try to explain. The easiest way is to draw a comparison with the TV game-show 'Golden Balls' which used the same idea. There is a sum of money and two people have a decision to make which they must make of their own accord and then inform each other of their decision simultaneously. The choice is to 'split' or to 'steal'. If they both split, they half the money. If one person 'steals' and the other splits, the person who steals wins all the money. However, if they both steal, neither win anything.

So you might say, why don't they both split and everyone goes home happy? Well, because that is never the optimum strategy. Stealing is. Because if you split and they split you only get half and if they steal you get nothing. Whereas if you steal and they split you win it all but if they split you win nothing. Basically, regardless of what you do, if the other person steals you are getting nothing so you might as well steal yourself for a chance to win it all instead of half. The underlying problem is that the optimal strategy for both parties is actually the worst outcome for everyone.

So finally I will involve football in this. The 'traditional' system is like the split position. If both teams adopt it, it's good football, it's enjoyable for the players and easy on the eye for the neutrals. The blanket defense mimics the steal position. If the other team doesn't employ it then its a counter-attacking dream. Soak up the pressure and then break at speed into the space, outnumbering the opposition in both defense and attack. However if both teams steal (blanket defense) it becomes a contest like Donegal vs Down on Sunday. A battle of trench warfare for both teams and not much fun for the neutral. But if the strategy works like a charm against the 'traditional' system and breaks even against a similar system, then it is obviously the optimum strategy. Therefore, both teams should play it, but if they do, the viewers will suffer.

I believe the key reason why this optimum strategy has become possible is due to the advances made by modern-day sports science, nutrition and dedication leading to the fittest players we have ever seen. Inter-county players are full-blown athletes in the modern game. And to explain why this has made the difference I will draw a comparison to another sport - basketball.

In a basketball team there are 5 players on a much smaller playing area. Imagine if basketball players played a 2-1-2 formation where 2 people stay up near the opposing basket, 1 in the middle and 2 play defense. Something along the same lines as the traditional formation in football. But why would you have players standing up front doing nothing when you are defending? They are fit enough to come back to defend and run forward to attack. If there ever was a time when players stayed in their positions in basketball, it wont happen again because its not optimal.

Decades ago when players weren't fit enough to run up and down the pitch for 70 minutes it was an impossible game plan. Now, is it possible that we have seen the development of an optimum strategy based on defending zonally as a team and attacking as a team much like in basketball.

The problem for the game as a whole is that this optimum strategy comes at a cost - the spectator. It seems that majority of people want to see more points, more goals and more free-flowing football instead of the intense defensive battles that see players constantly turnover possession and forced to shoot under immense pressure, as evident in Sunday's game.

Is Gaelic football facing a battle with Game Theory?

Game Theory and Gaelic Football

 Well done to Martin Kaymer who held his nerve to beat Bubba Watson in the playoff for the title last night. It was certainly a tense but enthralling final day and it quickly became apparent that solid scoring rather than heroics was going to be key.

When Nick Watney double-bogeyed the first it really opened things up but for him it was the beginning of a horrible day and he quickly disappeared from the leaderboard. Obviously I was rooting for Rory McIlroy and he struggled early on, miraculously escaping with pars on the first four holes despite missing every fairway. He did eventually drop a shot but recovered well. He gave himself plenty of birdie chances but they just weren't dropping for him and when he failed to make one on the par 5 16th despite a perfect drive, his challenge was all but over as it was always going to need something special to be -1 for the last two holes.

Bubba Watson played some tremendous golf and it looked as though he was really enjoying himself out there. Some of the drives he was hitting were hard to believe, frequently over 350 yards. Just monstrous hitting.

Kaymer was solid all day and his putt to save par on the 18th was fantastic. When that went in I thought to myself that if it went to a playoff then he looked a safe bet to hold it together.

But what about poor Dustin Johnson? Imagine if he had holed his putt to win the title and then been penalised 2 shots, it would have been devastating. Nevertheless, he missed his chance to contest the playoff and that was tough enough on him. I thought it was a very harsh call. To me it just looked like waste ground where the grass had been worn away by the fans but they are obviously sticklers for keeping to the rules.

In the playoff itself, you have to commend Bubba Watson for ot holding back and playing to win but it was a very ambitious shot he chose on the 18th and maybe he was just trying to Hollywood it a bit too much. Kaymer showed his composure by playing safe from the rough and then hitting a perfect approach shot.

Bubba nearly holed the miracle shot from the bunker to put the pressure on but it was not to be and congratulations to Kaymer on his first (and definitely not last) major.

Martin Kaymer wins dramatic USPGA Championship

Last night in Montreal, Canada, Jean Pascal scored a unanimous decision win over Chad Dawson for the WBC, IBO and Ring Magazine light-heavyweight titles, in an intriguing fight which ended prematurely due to an accidental headbutt opening a nasty cut over Dawson's right eye.

Having racked up the rounds early in the fight, Pascal looked to be running out of steam and Dawson was coming on strong in the championship rounds. Whether Pascal would have been able to last the four remaining minutes we will never know.

Pascal was able to steal rounds in the fight with occasional flurries while Dawson waited too long for things to happen. Dawson's jab was moderately successful but he failed to follow it up often enough with the straight-left, even though he looked dangerous when he did throw it. He could not figure out a strategy to deal with Pascal leaping forward with wild hooks until it was too late.

When Pascal charged forward in this way, often he was not landing anything clean but it got the crowd cheering and this sometimes convinces the judges that the punches were landing. At the same time, Dawson's defence for this was to crouch and lean his head, which as well as making it look sometimes that the punches were landing, it also prevented him from throwing back while in that position. Indeed, in the middle rounds he did get caught clean a few times and was rocked pretty bad at least once in the fight, where he looked on unsteady legs.

In the 11th round, it seemed to click with Dawson that he was going to lose the fight unless he stepped it up in a big way and he came out swinging, hurting Pascal with a barrage of straight lefts and hooks around the guard. Pascal managed to swivel off the ropes and stay upright, but shortly after, when he was leaping forward to launch his next flurry, he was caught with a massive counter left uppercut which stopped him dead in his tracks. He was stunned BAD. Dawson realised it and took a step forward, then looked at the ref for some reason, then moved forward but DIDN'T THROW and then backed off. It showed an incredible lack of a killer instinct as Pascal was just hovering like a zombie almost begging to be finished off.

Ultimately, it ended up costing Dawson as the clash of heads happened seconds later which forced the referee to call a halt to proceedings on doctor's orders.

The judges scored the fight 106-103, 106-103 and 108-101. I scored it 106-104 to Pascal.

Dawson complained after the fight that Pascal was holding and butting him all night but I didn't see much evidence for it. If anything, I noticed that Dawson looked very uncomfortable when Pascal got inside on him and he didn't really know how to deal with it. And it was only very late in the fight when he looked likely to catch Pascal on the way in, the big uppercut he eventually landed was there all night for him but he never threw it.

Pascal, to his credit, fought a good tactical fight and he did it in a disciplined manner. However, I feel that if there is a rematch then you have to favour Dawson who I still believe is the better boxer despite this lacklustre showing.

Pascal shocks Dawson but we are denied the grandstand finish

Alexander was busy but innacurate

As a boxing fan, you know it is always going to be difficult for a foreign fighter to beat a hometown fighter in his own back yard. It is almost something you just take for granted, especially when the hometown fighter is the title holder and a touted future superstar of the game. It is clear that Devon Alexander's future plans had already been made before his fight with Andriy Kotelnik on Saturday night and HBO and Don King promotions were ensuring that a Timothy Bradley - Alexander fight would not run into any hitches.

It's the only explanation I can come up with because Kotelnik clearly should have won that fight, even though he went down 116-112 on all three judges scorecards. While watching the fight and knowing how hard it would be for Kotelnik to convince the judges, even though I had him a good bit ahead after 9 rounds I thought the fight was probably about 50-50 at that stage and there was still a good possibility they would deny him of the victory. Then, after he continued to dominate the final 3 rounds I thought SURELY they cannot take this victory away from him, SURELY despite any efforts to sway their scores in Alexander's favour they have to give it to Kotelnik because it's just too obvious that he was the much better fighter.

Unfortunately, I was wrong.

The body language of the two fighters said it all in the final rounds. Alexander was tired, battered and bruised. He looked demoralised between rounds. He looked a beaten man. Meanwhile, Kotelnik was energised. He was fresh, his face unmarked. Even when he heard that all three judges had scored the fight 116-112 he was confident that it would be in his favour. The look of shock on his face when Alexander was announced the victor was not engineered, it wasn't faked, it was real. I was shocked in the same way, but it soon turned to anger at another laughable decision to a more marketable fighter. Alexander is young and has a great deal of potential, but he lost that fight.

The punchstats confirm this, despite not showing that Kotelnik also landed the cleaner shots by far. Alexander threw over 300 punches more than Kotelnik but landed 23 less giving a connect percentage of 18% compared to 29% for Kotelnik.

Its not fair because these are people's livelihoods we are dealing with here. Kotelnik went to the USA for the first time and put on a boxing clinic and what happens? Not only does he not get the title that should be his or the scalp of a big name on his resume, he will struggle to get a big payday anytime soon because he has shown he is a dangerous opponent and the big names will be reluctant to face him. Where is the justice? He deserves a rematch but he wont get it. Alexander would be stupid to give him one because he was figured out. Once a counter-puncher figures you out, you're in big trouble.

Devon Alexander proceeded to call out Bradley after the fight, sporting a ready-made t-shirt to do so. Embarrassing given what had gone on before.

One last point I have to make is Harold Lederman's scorecard which read 117-111 in favour of Alexander, possibly one of the worst scorecards I have ever seen. He kept banging on about Alexander being the more active fighter. I would love to ask him since when did throwing punches win you points? Its punches landed that matter. I think HBO should take a serious look at his scoring of that fight.

Alexander gets gift decision against Kotelnik

It's a bit frustrating being a boxing fan at the minute with some of the things that have been going on. There seems to be a trend developing where boxers just move from weight class to weight class, handpicking opponents and fighting for paper titles to decorate their resumes. Of course, money has always been the focal point of any boxer's career but it is getting to the point where we are not seeing the best boxers given the chance to prove themselves as the ranking systems are nigh on meaningless.

When is the last time a big fight has been scheduled because one fighter was the mandatory challenger to another fighter's belt? It doesn't happen that often nowadays because the belts just dont mean that much anymore. For example, in his recent fight with Shane Mosley, Floyd Mayweather Jr. refused to pay the 3% WBA sanctioning fee to fight for the title that night. Of course, this causes havoc because they couldn't really let Shane keep the belt when he lost the fight so its a bit of a farce that there is currently no holder of the belt. Floyd had good reason not to want to part with 3% of the takings (which is a lot of money in a Mayweather fight). There are so many different belts for every weight class that the titles have become diluted.

And the governing bodies are not helping themselves with some of the fights they are sanctioning. Manny Pacquiao fought Miguel Cotto at a catchweight of 145lbs for the WBO Welterweight title, even though the limit for that weight class is 147lbs. Is this fair? How can a title be on the line when the fighters are not allowed to fight at the weight limit of that title's weight class? Now, it seems, Pacquiao will be fighting for the vacant WBC Super-Welterweight title against Antonio Margarito at a catchweight of 150lbs when the limit is 154lbs. Thats closer to Welterweight than Super-Welterweight! Not to mention the fact that Margarito should be banned from the ring after trying to use illegal handwraps or that it seems Top Rank promoted fighters are only allowed to fight each other. There are plenty of fighters who are able and willing to fight at 154lbs and are more deserving of a shot at the title than Pacquiao. If you cant fight at a weight class then you should stay out of the weight class, in my opinion. The WBC is more interested in getting a bigger paycheck than the health of the sport it seems.

As long as the governing bodies allow these shams of fights to happen, the more promoters and boxers will take advantage of it. They have lost the respect of the fighters and the boxing public and have let the sport descend into a money-making farce where the top names can face who they want at whatever weight class they choose, while the better boxers (and more dangerous opponents) are left out in the cold due to an ineffectual rankings system.

Governing bodies losing control of boxing

Down 1-16 1-10 Kerry
What a performance from Down! They really were excellent throughout and Kerry had no answer to them. They had 8 different scorers compared to 3 for Kerry, the last being David Moran from the penalty spot (a sympathy penalty if ever there was one!) They started quickly but then Kerry started to come back into it and you wondered if it would be a repeat of the Tyrone game earlier in the year. But, to their credit, they kicked on again towards the end of the 1st half. They never really looked like they were going to relinquish that lead and any hopes of a Kerry comeback were ended with the Walsh sending off.

Colm Cooper was excellent for Kerry but he was more or less on his own, although Donaghy tried in vain but couldn't find a way past Michael McVeigh who pulled off a couple of super saves. For Down, its harsh to pick out names because it was a wonderful team effort but there were a few stand-out performances. Mark Poland brought the fight to Kerry with the early goal and a couple of excellent points. Benny Coulter tormented the Kerry defence all afternoon and hit some wonderful scores from all angles. He is definately up there with players who are deserving of an All-Ireland medal. Marty Clarke displayed all the attributes of a top-class playmaker; composure, decision-making, vision and accurate passing. He was always available for the pass and he has great appreciation of space. He really was outstanding. Down cleaned up in midfield and the forwards all worked hard when they didn't have the ball, leading to a few crucial turnovers which ended up as scores.

I hope they keep playing with such freedom because they are contenders for the title.

Dublin 1-15 0-13 Tyrone
This was a very strange game but an excellent one to analyse. Dublin brought what we all knew they would; hard-work, an honesty of effort and a few excellent players led by the best player in Ireland at the minute, Bernard Brogan. They tackled hard and in numbers and they always pressurised the man in possession. In a way they out-Tyroned Tyrone because they played one of the most defensive formations I have ever seen. For a lot of the game they played with 2 sweepers in front of the full-back line and gobbled up a lot of ball around the half-back area.

But this is where it gets strange. Tyrone were very poor. As poor as I have seen them in a long, long time. So many usually reliable players had bad games. Dooher and Cavanagh had days to forget, McGuigan was not as influential as usual and in general, the team looked lethargic. The support play was non-existant! Usually, in this Tyrone team there are players running on the shoulders of others but it never happened. I was amazed at how wrong they got it tactically. I'm always quick to give Mickey Harte praise but I feel he got it very wrong and he was too slow to make changes. There are many points I need to make here:

1. Many are saying that they should have abandoned the short kickouts because they allowed the Dublin players to funnel back. I don't agree with this. Tyrone have many good footballers at the back and what is the point of hitting into a midfield where there is every chance of losing it when there are men free at the back? HOWEVER, given this ploy I just can't see why Kevin Hughes was playing. Tyrone needed runners from deep to break Dublin down. Hughes is there to win ball in midfield but he was wasted with the short kickouts. Too many times Tyrone tried to kick-pass their way through the Dublin midfield but there were too many bodies in the way. I don't understand why a player like Sean Cavanagh wasn't used instead of Hughes in midfield, a player who can run at defences and break tackles. His brother Colm worked hard and was honest but he is a bit of a headless chicken at times. His passing and timing of the pass is often poor. Tyrone needed ball-players in midfield who were capable of running at Dublin and they didn't have that.

2. Some of the changes made by Harte were puzzling. He brought on O'Neill for Davy Harte at half-time when Tyrone were doing well. As I mentioned earlier, Tyrone needed runners from deep because there was no space in the forward line. I don't know if Harte was injured or not but surely Sean O'Neill was exactly the type of player who was needed. After this switch it was crazy how long Harte waited before making more changes. It was the 62nd minute before more changes were made when Peter Harte came on for Penrose. Penrose, while he worked hard, was poor enough in possession and gave the ball away too much. I felt Dooher should have been subbed maybe even at half-time because he just wasn't up to the pace. He is usually taken off early these days so why was he left on when he was having such a poor game? Enda McGinley was brought on in the 66th minute! Far too late to make an impression.

3. Colly McCullagh. I mentioned in my preview of this game how McCullagh controlled the game 2 years ago against Dublin and I felt this game was crying out for him. With so many players having off games, it was sad to see him being overlooked on the bench. He is a very intelligent and accurate footballer with a great appreciation for space. Its such a pity because I fear we will not see him again. He quit after last year because he felt he wasn't getting a fair chance and had to be coaxed back but surely this will be the end now. Just watch that game 2 years ago to see what he brought to that game, he was magnificent.

Even with all the flaws, Tyrone could still have won that game but kicked so many wides. A lot of these wides were down to a lack of composure and poor decisions, which is very rare to see from Tyrone. They normally don't shoot until they work the ball into good positions but some of the decisions were strange. Credit to Dublin for putting them under pressure but it is not what you expect from Tyrone. Owen Mulligan had a very good game but there weren't many other great performances on the Tyrone team. For Dublin, Bernard Brogan was tremendous, while Bryan Cullen and Rory O'Carroll were others who I thought had very good games.

Cork 1-16 0-10 Roscommon
The scoreline flattered Cork in the end because it wasn't a great performance but you always felt they had too much for Roscommon. In the end, their fitness told and the strength of their bench was too much for a brave Roscommon who played some decent football at the end of the first half but never really threatened the upset. It was by no means convincing from Cork though but they are through and that is the main thing. Maybe now, with both Kerry and Tyrone out, they will feel this is their big chance and will start to produce the football we know they are capable of. Roscommon will be happy with their year's work content with the fact they are the reigning provincial champions.

Kildare 2-17 1-12 Meath
Kildare continue to impress me and I would have to install them as favourites for the title this year. Again, they started very slow but were back in the game by half time and they produced a near perfect second half performance to simply blow Meath away. I never really thought Meath would be good enough and it proved to be the case when Kildare really turned it on. Their movement and running off the ball is incredible and really shows how fit they are. Defenders of the other team find it hard to tackle the man because they are usually trying to block or intercept a pass to another player, but Kildare have so many options on the ball that defenders often find themselves in no man's land! They made the game look easy and Meath just couldn't cope with their intensity and mental strength. Like I said before, they just keep coming wave after wave and there is no let-up.

Jonny Doyle and Eoin O'Flaherty were both brilliant and James Kavanagh set up a lot of scores and showed great skill and composure to score his goal. I thought losing Dermot Early barely two minutes in would be a massive blow but they regrouped and actually dominated the midfield area in his absence. I still feel it would be a big blow were he to miss the semi-final as you could see at the final whistle how much of an inspiration he is in the dressing-room. McGeeney has built a team that threatened to do last year what they are doing this year and its no fluke that they are here and credit to him for that.

Review of GAA Football All-Ireland SFC Quarter-Finals

Kerry v Down, Croke Park, 2.00pm
Down currently hold a 100% record in meetings with Kerry, coming into this game 4/4, the most recent being in 1991. Since then, the two counties have gone in separate directions in terms of success. Down won the All-Ireland in '91 and '94 but since then the closest they came to silverwhere was an Ulster final draw with Tyrone in 2003 and a drubbing in the replay. Kerry, on the other hand, have appeared in the last 6 All-Ireland finals, emerging as victors in 4 of them.

Could it be the best time to face Kerry? It is likely to be. This game they are missing Paul Galvin and Tomas O'Se, both of whom are suspended. Aidan O'Mahony returns to fill in the void left by O'Se at right-half-back. A timely return but will he be up to championship pace? Indeed, will the whole team suffer from the long lay-off from the Munster final? Down have had much more game time and their confidence will be sky high after last week's demolition of Sligo. They are also boosted by the availability of Damien Rafferty and star-man Benny Coulter, who have shaken off injuries sustained in that game.

I was critical before of Dan Gordon playing full-back and I would still worry about him facing nippy opponents but he should be well suited to mark Kieran Donaghy. I feel that Down will have the upper-hand in midfield where Caolan King and Ambrose Rodgers have been superb so far this year and once again the amount of ball that Marty Clarke gets on will be pivotal to Down's chances.

Down lack the big-game experience that Kerry have but I think they will surprise a lot of people tomorrow and I'm backing them to pull off a huge upset.

Verdict: Down

Tyrone v Dublin, Croke Park, 4.00pm
Are Dublin relishing the chance to get revenge against Tyrone or are they fearful that they are not good enough to beat them? I would be more prone to think it is the latter. While Dublin have been solid enough in recent times, I would question their mental fragility when things aren't going their way. In the games against Meath, Wexford and Tipperary, they suffered lapses in concentration and focus. To stand any chance tomorrow they will need to play for the full 70 minutes. They are also all too prone to complete collapses as we have seen numerous times in recent years and Tyrone will have them beyond arms-length in record time if they switch off.

For Tyrone, Brian McGuigan replaces his brother in attack and this doesn't really weaken them. In fact, I think it will be of benefit to have another player who is controlled in posession. In the game 2 years ago, Colm McCullagh controlled the game from deep and that might just be McGuigan's role this game.

The key to this game will be Tyrone's intelligence of movement and their ability to work the ball into great shooting positions. I don't think the Dublin defense will be able to cope with this and I dont think their attack is varied enough to break Tyrone down.

Verdict: Tyrone

Roscommon v Cork, Croke Park, 2.00pm
Roscommon are in bonus territory and will be out to enjoy this occasion and try to play their best football. In normal circumstances it would be a game where you would worry about Cork underestimating a much-less fancied opposition but I don't think this will be the case. After last weeks below par performance against Limerick, Cork will be on their guard this time and I think we will see a much improved performance.

Man for man, there is quite a sizeable gulf in class between the two teams and I expect Cork to have too much power in the half-back and midfield areas of the pitch. They have such a strong bench and with places possibly up for grabs in many areas, the players will be looking to cement their places for the latter stages of the competition.


Verdict: Cork

Meath v Kildare, Croke Park, 4.00pm
Meath haven't had a game since their narrow win against Louth and they probably could have benefitted from offering them a replay in that sense! They have a few big-game players in the team and they are one of the teams who are quite vulnerable if any of them have an off-day. They disposed of Dublin well but were never really tested in that game when they got the easy goals. More worringly, they were very poor against Louth in the second half.

Kildare for me have been the most impressive team in the championship this year. They do shoot from some low-percentage angles and distances but they create so many chances that it works out in the end. Mentally, they look very strong and not surprisingly, given they are under the tutelage of Kieran McGeeney, they are all fighting fit. In the games against Derry and Monaghan they just kept coming wave after wave of attack and both teams eventually succumbed to the pressure. Dermot Early is the leader and inspiration in midfield and it seems that in Emmet Bolton, there is a player who McGeeney is moulding himself in to be the heartbeat of the team from centre-half-back.

Meath have a chance if they score a couple of goals but in my mind the most probable outcomes are either a narrow or a wide Kildare winning margin.

Verdict: Kildare

GAA SFC Quarter-Final Previews